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The new crown epidemic is more contagious than SARS, causing the impact of this epidemic to be greater than the impact of the SARS epidemic on economic markets in 2003. In the short term, delaying resumption of work to control the spread of the epidemic and the impact on logistics will directly affect the operation of the polyester industry. But we can also see the dawn, the number of confirmed diagnoses in areas outside Hubei has dropped ten times, which also proves that the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening. This article will analyze the impact of the epidemic on the polyester industry chain and the polyester industry under the new crown epidemic How the chain broke.
First, the impact of the epidemic on the polyester industry chain
From the perspective of the degree of automation of the polyester industry chain, the upstream is mostly the larger the automation of large-scale refining equipment, and the downstream is more labor-intensive industries. The more downstream the labor force, the greater the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic.
The impact on the textile and apparel industry is divided into two aspects, domestic demand and external demand. The impact on domestic demand may be greater than in 2003. The textile and apparel industry faced a "warm winter" in 19 years, and domestic demand suffered a significant setback. The first quarter of this year's Spring Festival order was the peak sales season, but the epidemic was more contagious than 2003 and the epidemic covered the country In most areas, the traditional consumer season has a greater impact on the Spring Festival. At the same time, the epidemic also adversely affects the demand for spring clothing, making "cold spring" reappear after "warm winter", and even adversely affecting the demand for summer clothing. In terms of external demand, on January 30, the Director General of the World Health Organization, Tan Desai announced that the pneumonia epidemic of the new coronavirus infection constitutes an "public health emergency of international concern", but does not recommend travel and trade restrictions on China. Orders from overseas are subject to transfer and postponement. The second round of China-U.S. Trade negotiations has not yet begun, and the wait-and-see mood in the market is still there. The sudden outbreak of this epidemic will intensify the cautious mood in the market.
影響 The impact on downstream weaving is mainly the effect on the resumption of workers and the increase of the load on the loom. After the Spring Festival in previous years, there were difficulties in recruiting downstream workers. However, due to the need for epidemic prevention and control this year, the recruitment of downstream weaving workers will be more difficult. At the same time, it also has a certain impact on logistics, so that the downstream weaving industry has a situation where raw materials cannot be transported in, and products cannot be transported out. It takes time to recover.
The impact of radon on polyester is mainly the pressure on inventory and cash flow. The pressure on the inventory of polyester factories that stopped production late before the Spring Festival is gradually increasing. At present, the inventory of polyester factories with large inventories has exceeded 20 days, and the inventory of factories that have reduced production earlier before the holiday is still around 10 days. Until January 30, The inventory of polyester staple fiber is 4.96 days, the inventory of DTY is 24 days, and the inventory of FDY is 17 days. By February 13, polyester staple fiber inventory rose by 8.64 days, DTY inventory rose by 9 days, and FDY inventory rose by 8.5 days. During the epidemic, logistics was blocked, and downstream weaving production was slower. The inventory pressure of polyester factories will still increase. It is expected that polyester inventory will break through historical highs. Inventory pressure and cash flow pressure of polyester factories will continue to increase, forcing Polyester plants continue to cut production.
Impact on PTA. Along with the increase in production and reduction of polyester factories and the obstruction of logistics, the efficiency of freight transportation has declined and PTA consumption has been suppressed. In addition, before the Spring Festival, there were 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical and 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Petrochemical put into operation, and the load of the PTA device reached more than 90%. It is expected that the PTA output will reach a record high. Throughout February, PTA production is expected to reach nearly 4 million tons, and the accumulated storage of PTA from January to February is expected to reach more than 1 million tons. The PTA social inventory will also break the historical high of 2 million tons. From the perspective of cash flow, the PTA processing difference before the Spring Festival reached 700 yuan / ton, but with the rapid decline after the Spring Festival, the PTA processing difference quickly reduced to less than 400 yuan / ton, and the cost of PX purchased before the holiday was nearly At 800 US dollars / ton, the willingness of the PTA plant to start is low, and due to the blocked logistics, most of the social inventory is in the PTA plant. The cash flow pressure of the PTA plant has increased sharply. It is expected that the load of the PTA plant will decline.
2. How does the polyester industry chain break in the post-new crown epidemic?
邏輯 The logic of accumulation in the PTA market has been clear. After fermentation during the Spring Festival holiday, the decline led the chemical products. As the market panic dissipated, PTA ushered in a slight correction. However, PTA's own supply and demand are weak, sharp contradictions, high inventory suppresses the upward price, and the processing difference close to the limit further limits the downward price, which is a dilemma.
The market is concerned about ways to break the current deadlock in PTA, focusing on the degree of load reduction at PTA plants and the resumption of work at terminal plants. Currently in the critical period of domestic epidemic management and control, the progress of resumption of work is still lower than expected. On the one hand, there are risks to the management and control of the health of its employees, and on the other hand, the poor logistics affects the procurement of raw materials and sales of products. Therefore, the upstream and downstream of the entire industry chain must be carried out simultaneously. Delaying the resumption of work in any link will affect the resumption of the entire industry chain. According to optimistic estimates, the downstream weaving load will increase from the 17th. Assuming that the downstream weaving is fully resumed on the 24th, the load will increase to around 80% of the highest, but it is difficult to return, and the overall load in February will not be significantly improved. It is difficult to clear the high social inventory of PTA, but under the background of difficult to improve textile and clothing, the load increase of the loom may be limited. Therefore, it is difficult to boost PTA inventory consumption only by relying on the load of downstream loom. Therefore, the reduction of production at the PTA supply side is the weiyi way to solve the pressure of PTA inventory and break the PTA price deadlock.
Source: Textile Net
Xuzhou Heping Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. is a professional manufacturer and supplier of polypropylene products such as polypropylene high-strength yarn, polypropylene industrial yarn, polypropylene high-strength yarn, high-strength polypropylene network yarn, and split film industrial yarn.
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